Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is standing as the Labour candidate in a by-election, aiming to return to Westminster. Multiple reports cite internal polling suggesting that right-leaning parties could split the vote in a way that benefits Labour. One account says a “right-wing rival” is polling at 13%, while another indicates that support for the right could be distributed between Reform UK and Restore Britain. The reports argue that if the vote shares for Reform UK and Restore Britain were combined, the combined right would overtake Labour, which would change the expected outcome. However, the same polling is presented as indicating that, with the parties competing separately, Burnham could be positioned to win the seat. The coverage also frames the by-election as a potential stepping stone in Burnham’s broader political ambitions, including plans described as a future bid to replace Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Across the sources, the common theme is the role of polling and the possibility that competition between right-leaning parties affects Labour’s prospects.