The World Bank lowers its forecast for global economic growth for 2026 to 2.5%, describing it as the weakest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic. The cut is linked to expanding economic spillovers from the war in the Middle East, which it says disrupts energy supplies and contributes to higher costs. Multiple reports say the bank downgrades growth outlooks for about two-thirds of countries in its half-yearly Global Economic Prospects. The World Bank estimates global growth at 2.7% in 2025, before the 2026 slowdown. In its outlook, it also warns that inflation is expected to rise amid the conflict’s effects, with headline inflation averaging around 4% in 2026. Several sources add that, under a more adverse scenario where energy disruptions worsen or spread to markets, growth could fall further to around 1.3%. Energy and commodity-price pressures feature in the bank’s projections, including an expected increase in commodity prices in 2026 compared with a previously lower expectation. The bank highlights that countries in West Asia, including the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, face among the biggest forecast revisions.