Indian stocks rebound after US-Iran tensions lift; Sensex and Nifty recover key levels

Mumbai: Indian stock markets rebounded strongly in morning trade on Monday as crude oil prices fell sharply and tensions in West Asia eased.At 10:48 am, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 541.41 points, or 0.71 percent, higher at 76,601.19.The index opened at 76,608.98 and touched a morning high of 76,715.64. Its lowest level during the session was 76,517.85.At 10:50 am, the NSE Nifty 50 was up 149.90 points, or 0.63 percent, at 23,917.35. The Nifty opened at 23,928.40 and moved between 23,891.55 and 23,964.50 during morning trade.Oil ReliefMarket sentiment improved after the US and Iran paused military action, reducing fears of an immediate disruption in global oil supplies.Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped 4 percent to around USD 92.84 per barrel. It had traded near USD 102 per barrel four days earlier.Crude Oil Slump Sparks Late Recovery, Sensex And Nifty End Lower For Fifth Straight SessionLower crude oil prices are positive for India as the country imports most of its energy needs. Cheaper oil can help control inflation, improve the current account and reduce pressure on the rupee.Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct, said the fall in crude prices had provided a major boost to the domestic market.Stocks RiseInterGlobe Aviation, Infosys, Eternal, Asian Paints and Bajaj Finance were among the major Sensex gainers. Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank traded lower.VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments said a sustained easing of the West Asia conflict and a further decline in crude prices could support a mild market rally.Asian markets showed a mixed trend. South Korea’s KOSPI traded lower, while Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained.Crude Oil Slump Sparks Late Recovery, Sensex And Nifty End Lower For Fifth Straight SessionUS markets ended mostly higher in the previous session.Foreign institutional investors sold Indian shares worth Rs 3,892.77 crore on Friday, according to exchange data.On Friday, the Sensex had fallen 331.62 points to 76,059.77, while the Nifty declined 102.15 points to close at 23,767.45.

The Indian stock market extended losses for the fifth consecutive session, with Sensex and Nifty tumbling more than 1% intraday before paring most of the losses and closing 0.4% lower each on Friday, as oil prices above $100 per barrel, FII selling and other factors spooked investors.Sensex fell 332 points to close at 76,059.77, while Nifty 50 declined 102 points to end the session at the 23,767 mark during Friday's trading session. Broader markets also saw a sharp recovery after a crash in the morning trading hours, with the Nifty Midcap 50 index closing in the green.Here's how analysts read the market pulseMarket sentiment is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, as sustained oil prices in a higher range could begin to adversely impact key macroeconomic indicators and growth dynamics, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments. He noted that the US 10-year yield has climbed to a 52-week high despite crude oil trading well below its crisis-era peak, reflecting the bond market's concerns over energy-led inflation risks, resilient labour market conditions, and a persistently hawkish Fed."These factors have pushed the implied probability of a rate hike in September. Washington’s new tariffs on imports added another headwind for export-driven economies, with technology-heavy markets having been hit the most, as higher rates weigh on growth and investors are increasingly seeking to diversify their concentrated exposure to other emerging market opportunities. Bank Nifty outperformed, supported by favourable valuations and credit growth outlooks," he added.US stocksThe Nasdaq declined on Friday as a sell-off in chip stocks weighed on sentiment, driven by growing investor concerns over the scale of spending on artificial intelligence ahead of key megacap earnings. The S&P 500 ended largely flat, with weakness in the technology index offsetting broader support from lower oil prices despite ongoing Middle East tensions.Investor enthusiasm for Big Tech also softened after Alphabet signalled plans to increase capital expenditure, intensifying worries about sustained cash burn in AI. Market participants are now cautious as they await earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple, with rising scrutiny on the returns from heavy AI investments.European marketsEuropean markets closed higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 rising 0.8%, recovering from the previous session’s decline and marking a second straight week of gains. The uptick was supported by easing oil prices, which provided some relief to equities.However, sentiment remained cautious as bond yields stayed elevated amid inflation concerns. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged, while markets continue to price in a strong probability of a rate hike in September, even as economic data from Germany and France showed signs of improvement.Tech view"The Nifty slipped from the consolidation on the daily chart on Thursday, with follow-up selling taking the index to 23,600 on Friday. Besides, the index has fallen below the 50 EMA as well, confirming a new downtrend for the short term. Immediate support is placed at 23,600. A fall below 23,600 might trigger a severe correction, as investors would be running away, putting the Nifty at greater downside risk. On the higher end, 24,000 will become the line of polarity. Unless the Nifty moves higher to reclaim 24,000, the broader trend is likely to remain weak," said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.Most active stocks in terms of turnoverInfosys (Rs 2,991 crore), Bajaj Finance (Rs 1,864 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 1,770 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 1,553 crore), IndiGo (Rs 1,423 crore), SBI (Rs 1,392 crore) and RIL (Rs 1,251 crore) were among the most active stocks on NSE in value terms. Higher activity in a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with the highest trading turnovers during the day.Most active stocks in volume termsVodafone Idea (traded shares: 38.28 crore), Yes Bank (traded shares: 5.38 crore), Suzlon Energy (traded shares: 4.53 crore), Ola Electric (traded shares: 4.05 crore), Eternal (traded shares: 3.7 crore), Canara Bank (traded shares: 3.67 crore) and JP Power (traded shares: 3.45 crore) were among the most actively traded stocks in volume terms on NSE.Stocks showing buying interestAction Construction Equipment, KPIT Tech, PVR Inox, RR Kabel, Atul, Tata Elxsi and Dr Lal Pathlabs were among the stocks that witnessed strong buying interest from market participants.52-week highAmong the stocks that hit their 52-week highs on NSE were Laurus Labs, Nuvama Wealth Management, Lloyds Metals and Sona BLW Precision.Stocks seeing selling pressureStocks that witnessed significant selling pressure included Go Digit General Insurance, Motilal Oswal, Syrma SGS, Ami Organics, ITD Cementation, HFCL and Chennai Petro.52-week lowAmong the stocks that hit their 52-week lows were Go Digit General Insurance, UTI AMC, IndiaMART, KEC, RVNL, RIL and IRFC.Sentiment meter favours bearsOut of the 3,425 stocks that traded on the NSE on Friday, July 24, 1,702 advanced, 1,595 declined, while 128 remained unchanged.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Mumbai: Indian stock markets are expected to remain under pressure this week after a weak previous session. Analysts said global uncertainty, rising crude oil prices and mixed corporate earnings could keep investors cautious.The Sensex and Nifty both ended last week with sharp losses as banking stocks remained weak and geopolitical tensions hurt market sentiment.Key Levels to WatchAccording to market experts, the Sensex is likely to face immediate resistance near the 76,300 mark.On the downside, support is seen in the 75,800–75,700 zone. If the index falls below this range, it could slip further towards 75,500–75,400.These levels are expected to play an important role in deciding the market's short-term direction.Nifty Support at 23,600For the Nifty, analysts said the index has moved below its month-long trading range of 23,800–24,400.The index tested support near 23,600 before ending the week at 23,767.45.Experts believe 23,600 is now a crucial level. If the Nifty breaks below it, the correction could deepen towards 23,100, which was the previous swing low.On the upside, resistance is expected around 24,000–24,100, while 24,400 remains the next major hurdle.Why Markets Fell Last WeekIndian markets remained volatile throughout the week due to a combination of global and domestic factors.A sharp rise in crude oil prices and fresh geopolitical tensions increased uncertainty in global markets. Investors also reacted cautiously to mixed first-quarter earnings from banking companies. Crude Oil Slump Sparks Late Recovery, Sensex And Nifty End Lower For Fifth Straight SessionAt the same time, weakness in the rupee and a broader risk-off mood reduced buying interest, even though India's economic indicators remained relatively stable and several companies reported encouraging quarterly results.Weekly PerformanceThe Sensex declined 2.68 percent during the week to close at 76,059.77.The Nifty fell 2.33 percent to end at 23,767.45.Analysts expect global developments, corporate earnings and movements around these important technical levels to guide market direction in the coming trading sessions.

New Delhi: Indian stock markets are expected to remain volatile this week as investors closely watch crude oil prices, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, tensions in West Asia and a packed quarterly earnings calendar.Global Factors in FocusAnalysts said the ongoing conflict involving the US and Iran has increased uncertainty in global markets. Investors will closely monitor any further developments in West Asia, especially the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supplies.Any disruption to oil shipments could push crude prices higher. Rising oil prices may increase inflation and affect economic growth, making investors more cautious.All Eyes on the US FedThe US Federal Reserve's policy meeting will be another major event for global markets this week.Most experts expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, investors will pay close attention to the central bank's comments on inflation, economic growth and future rate decisions.Analysts believe the Fed's outlook will influence global investor sentiment and foreign investment flows into emerging markets, including India.Domestic Data and EarningsIn India, investors will also watch the June Industrial Production (IIP) data for clues about the country's economic activity.At the same time, quarterly earnings from several large companies are expected to keep stock-specific action high.Crude Oil Slump Sparks Late Recovery, Sensex And Nifty End Lower For Fifth Straight SessionMajor companies scheduled to announce results this week include Coal India, Bharat Electronics (BEL), Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever, Adani Enterprises, Asian Paints, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, ITC and Sun Pharma.Strong or weak earnings from these companies could significantly influence overall market sentiment.Markets Fall For Third Straight Session, Oil Surge & Bank Stock Selling Drag Sensex And Nifty LowerMarkets Ended Last Week LowerIndian equity markets closed sharply lower last week amid rising global concerns.The BSE Sensex fell 2,091.68 points (2.67 percent), while the NSE Nifty declined 566.85 points (2.32 percent), reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of this week's key global and domestic events.

Indian equities head into next week with a critical support level under siege after five straight sessions of selling erased 2,092 points from the Sensex and dragged the Nifty to its lowest close since June 12. With the Nifty at 23,767, a breach of 23,600 could trigger a severe correction, while any rebound may struggle near 24,000-24,200.The Nifty lost another 102 points on Friday, extending its decline for a fifth consecutive session. Investor sentiment remained subdued as Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel following a fresh escalation in the Middle East, reviving concerns over inflation and the domestic economy.Disappointing quarterly earnings from select large-cap companies and continued weakness in the rupee also weighed on sentiment. The dollar-rupee exchange rate held near 96.55, while surging energy costs and persistent supply-chain concerns added to market volatility.The charts now point to a sharp deterioration in the short-term setup. Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty slipped out of its consolidation on Thursday before follow-up selling took it to 23,600 on Friday. The index has also fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average, confirming a new short-term downtrend.“The weekly chart looks more scary,” De told ET Markets. Over the past four weeks, the Nifty has repeatedly failed to move above its 50-week exponential moving average as selling remained strong at higher levels and buying support stayed fragmented.Also Read | MTF risk grows as investors borrow record Rs 1.36 lakh crore to buy stocks. What happens if the market falls?For traders, 23,600 has emerged as the most consequential level for next week. “A fall below 23600 might trigger a severe correction, as investors would be running away, putting the Nifty at greater downside risk,” De said.On the upside, 24,000 has become the line of polarity. The broader trend is likely to remain weak unless the index reclaims that level, according to De.Friday’s sharp recovery from the intraday lows, however, offers a limited counterpoint to the bearish weekly structure. Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities, said the Nifty formed a sizable green candle at the lows, signalling the emergence of some buying interest.The index is positioned at the crucial 23,600 support, which coincides with the opening upside gap of June 15 and an ascending trend line. That creates the possibility of a near-term relief rally even though the short-term trend has weakened sharply.Shetti expects the Nifty could bounce toward the immediate resistance at 24,200 next week before coming under pressure again. While the short-term trend has turned bearish, he said the medium- to long-term uptrend remains intact.The technical roadmap for next week is therefore narrow. The Nifty must first defend 23,600, reclaim 24,000 and then attempt a move toward 24,200. Failure to hold the lower end could open the door to a much sharper decline.Also Read | All bad news is priced in, but don't call it a bull market yet: SAMCO MF CEO Viraj GandhiThe macroeconomic backdrop offers little immediate comfort. Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said market sentiment is likely to remain under pressure if oil prices stay elevated, potentially hurting key economic indicators and growth dynamics.“The US 10-year yield has climbed to a 52-week high despite crude oil trading well below its crisis-era peak, reflecting the bond market's concerns over energy-led inflation risks, resilient labour market conditions, and a persistently hawkish Fed,” Nair said.Those factors have raised the implied probability of a US rate increase in September. New US tariffs on imports have added another headwind for export-oriented economies, while higher interest rates have weighed particularly heavily on technology-focused markets.India’s dependence on imported oil is also returning as a central market risk. VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea had aggravated the West Asia crisis and pushed crude prices higher.“When Brent crude trades above $95, which is the price now, it is bound to have sentimental impact on the Indian market. India’s vulnerability to high oil price is once again becoming a macro concern,” Vijayakumar said.He expects negative sentiment to keep stock prices largely subdued, but said the correction could create opportunities for long-term investors to gradually accumulate high-quality companies in growth segments. Banking stocks appear attractively valued in the context of strong credit growth and very low non-performing assets, he said.Markets will now track upcoming corporate earnings, crude oil prices and defensive allocation strategies. Domestic retail liquidity remains robust, but the charts suggest buyers will need to defend 23,600 before any credible recovery can begin.

Indian benchmark indices remained under heavy pressure on Friday as a combination of surging crude oil prices, weak global market cues and disappointing corporate earnings triggered broad-based selling across Dalal Street.The BSE Sensex plunged over 900 points, or 1.18%, to 75,474, while the NSE Nifty50 declined over 250 points, or over 1%, to 23,606. Earlier in the session, the Sensex had already fallen over 500 points, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.The biggest concern for markets was the sharp rise in crude oil prices. Brent crude surged above the crucial $100-per-barrel mark to $100.64, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded near $92 per barrel following fresh attacks on Saudi oil tankers, raising fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.Sensex Falls 394 Points, Market Extends Losing Streak To Four Sessions Amid Broad-Based Selling Higher crude prices pose a major challenge for India, which depends heavily on oil imports. A sustained rise in energy prices could increase inflation, widen the trade deficit, put pressure on the rupee and impact corporate margins.Global market weakness also impacted domestic sentiment. US markets ended sharply lower after disappointing earnings from major technology companies. The Dow Jones declined 1%, the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%.Investor concerns increased after Alphabet and Tesla announced higher artificial intelligence-related investments without immediate improvement in cash flows. Brent Crude Reclaims USD 100 Per Barrel As West Asia Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher Tesla shares fell around 14%, while Alphabet declined nearly 7% after increasing its AI spending plans by $15 billion.Domestic earnings also weighed on sentiment. Infosys shares declined after weaker-than-expected quarterly results, while IndiGo faced selling pressure following its earnings announcement.The broader market also remained weak, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 falling nearly 1% and mid-cap indices trading lower. India VIX, the market volatility gauge, jumped nearly 7%, indicating heightened investor uncertainty.Sector-wise, realty, auto and metal stocks led the decline, while financial services, oil and gas, private banks and PSU banks also traded lower. FMCG and IT stocks managed to remain relatively resilient amid the broader market sell-off.