A Reuters poll forecasts that Japan’s core inflation will stay below the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target for a fourth consecutive month in May. Multiple market and economic observers surveyed in the poll expect the core measure, which excludes fresh food, to come in under the BOJ’s goal, indicating that price pressures remain insufficient to fully meet the central bank’s target on a sustained basis. The forecast points to continued challenges for the BOJ in judging whether inflation is firmly entrenched near 2%, a key factor guiding its monetary policy stance.
The poll’s findings come ahead of the official release of Japan’s May inflation data. They suggest that, despite ongoing inflation trends, the underlying pace of price growth has not yet accelerated enough to bring core inflation consistently above or at the BOJ target. Until the final data are published, the estimates remain subject to revision, but the overall expectation across respondents is for core inflation to remain below target in the latest reading, extending the streak of sub-2% outcomes into another month.
