With the 2026 World Cup expanded, the route to the knockout stage changes in a way that can produce a “bubble” for teams finishing third in their groups, according to analysis cited by multiple outlets. Both sources describe simulations using outcomes from past tournaments to estimate how many points typically keep a third-placed team in contention. Their findings indicate that reaching four points is likely to be enough to advance, while finishing on three points places teams on the margin where qualification is less certain. When teams are tied on points, the rules can move the decision to tiebreakers, particularly goal difference, which may determine which third-place teams progress. The analysis therefore emphasizes that group-stage results at three points can lead to qualification outcomes that depend on other matches and on how teams perform relative to goal difference. Overall, the expanded tournament format reshapes the threshold and increases uncertainty for teams at the lower end of the qualifying range for knockout spots.