Multiple outlets report a new Lowy Institute analysis finding that China is capable of conducting a direct missile strike on Australia and that the risk is increasing. The report says the most direct threat would come from missiles launched from Chinese ships and submarines, as well as from a developing intermediate-range ballistic missile capability. It also points to China’s fielding of the DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which has been assessed as having an estimated range of about 5,000 to 8,000 kilometres, potentially placing Australia within reach depending on basing and deployment.
The analysis links the growing threat to several factors: China’s acquisition of long-range and hypersonic weapons; the build-up of advanced military capability over time; and China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea that could improve missile deployment options. Some reporting also notes that the risk could further escalate if China deploys additional long-range bombers or expands the availability of longer-range missile systems, including a potential conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile.
Across the reports, emphasis is placed on capability assessment rather than stated Chinese intentions, and outlets add that Australia’s broader concerns also include risks to trade routes and critical infrastructure.
