A report by Australia’s Lowy Institute says China has the capability to carry out a direct missile strike on Australia and that the risk is growing. The report identifies China’s expanding long-range and hypersonic weapons and its construction of islands in the South China Sea as key drivers. It says the most significant direct threat comes from Chinese missiles that could be launched from ships and submarines, and from a new intermediate-range ballistic missile that could reach Australia. The report points to the DF-27 missile, citing a range of about 5,000 to 8,000 kilometres according to U.S. military assessments, and adds that Beijing could field other capabilities over time, including a potential conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile.
The institute says the threat assessment focuses on China’s military capacity rather than Beijing’s intentions, and it argues that public understanding of the risk is limited. It also notes that while the primary concerns for Australia can include undersea communications vulnerabilities, cyber attacks, and maritime disruption, a direct strike threat is “real and growing.” The report links potential escalation to additional Chinese delivery systems and deployment of aircraft or missiles on Pacific islands closer to Australia.
