U.S.-Iran deal reopens Strait of Hormuz, but oil and shipping recovery may take months

Iranian Tankers Cross US Naval Blockade After Trump Deal Allows Iran To Restart Oil Sales

Iranian Tankers Cross US Naval Blockade After Trump Deal Allows Iran To Restart Oil Sales The first Iranian ships crossed the area of the US naval blockade without obstruction after a memorandum of understanding was reached to end the war between Washington and Tehran, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported Tuesday. At least three Iranian oil tankers and two cargo ships carrying essential goods broke through the US naval blockade following an accord between the countries.  A large Iranian VLCC and another vessel used to transport livestock moved from open waters toward Iranian ports, the agency said. Another Iranian tanker carrying oil also crossed the Gulf of Oman toward its designated export port, Fars said, without providing further details about the destination. BREAKING: CRUDE OIL DEPARTS IRAN FOLLOWING A TWO MONTH LONG NAVY BLOCKADE According to AIS data which we corroborated yesterday (2026-06-15) by satellite imagery, at least two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertankers named DIONA (9569695) and HERO2 (9362073) have… pic.twitter.com/tSesQTcC6K — TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) June 16, 2026 The crossing followed a WSJ report that under the agreement expected to formally end the war between the United States and Iran on Friday, Tehran would be allowed to immediately resume oil and fuel sales. The sanctions relief takes effect as soon as the agreement is signed and extends beyond crude exports to include the banking, shipping, and insurance services needed to move those barrels to market. That detail may prove to be one of the most consequential parts of the entire agreement. Oil sanctions are only effective if buyers can't pay, tankers can't ship, and insurers won't touch the cargo. By waiving restrictions across the entire supply chain, Washington is effectively giving Iran access to international energy markets from day one rather than months down the road, according to OilPrice.com. Iran holds some of the world's largest oil and gas reserves and was producing well over 3 million barrels per day before the conflict. Much of that production has remained constrained by sanctions, infrastructure limitations, and wartime disruptions. The prospect of Iranian barrels returning to global markets in meaningful volumes could reshape supply expectations just as consumers and governments remain focused on energy security after months of turmoil in the Middle East. The move also marks a striking shift in U.S. policy. Washington spent years tightening restrictions on Iran's energy sector. Now, the Trump administration appears prepared to use oil revenues as a financial incentive to secure a lasting end to the conflict. The oil could potentially start flowing the moment the ink dries without the expected waiting period. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 19:40

6 hours ago

U.S.-Iran Deal Doesn't Mean A Swift Return Of Oil And Gas Flows

U.S.-Iran Deal Doesn't Mean A Swift Return Of Oil And Gas Flows Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, A U.S.-Iran agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping and production will not immediately return to normal. More than 10 million bpd of Middle Eastern oil production has been shut in, and some fields may take months to restart fully. Iraq faces a slower recovery than Saudi Arabia or the UAE because its southern exports depend heavily on access through Basrah. The U.S.-Iran deal and the potentially imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz do not mean that oil and gas trade will quickly return to its previous levels. The announcement of the deal is just the first step, and it could take months for oil and gas shipments in the region to return to pre-war levels. Middle Eastern producers have been forced to shut in more than 10 million barrels per day of oil production since the Strait of Hormuz was closed three and a half months ago. Producers will need months to fully ramp up wells to previous output levels, while the status of the Strait of Hormuz - even if it re-opens on Friday as expected - is still unclear. "We don't know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of trapped material is going to be," Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, told AP late on Sunday. Some producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would be quicker to restore output compared to Iraq, for example, which had to curtail the highest proportion of its production due to its inability to move the crude out of its southern fields through Basrah. "Places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they've had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult," Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals, and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said. "It may well take about a year before they get back," the expert told AP. At the end of May, WoodMac's analysts said that assuming operators choose a measured and controlled ramp-up, the fields affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure could get back to 70% of prior production within three months and to 90% within six months. The last 1 million bpd or so will take considerably longer, according to the energy consultancy. According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, "The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market." Already, some shipping companies have made it clear that they will wait until the deal is formalized on Friday before attempting to cross the Strait. Even for shipowners who are willing to make the crossing, organizing insurance and other practical issues could further delay the recovery. The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could well mark the end of the war between Iran and the U.S., but it marks only the beginning of what will likely be a long road to recovery for the oil and gas industry. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 12:25

1 day ago

Oil supplies could still take months to get back on track despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire

High oil and gasoline prices and energy supply problems won’t be solved overnight, despite an agreement to end the Iran war and open the Strait of Hormuz announced Sunday.It will likely take months before energy companies can resume operations to the point of meeting the world’s demand, according to energy experts. The slow pace of the process of shipping and refining crude oil, and doubts about the security of traveling through the strait mean the effect won’t be seen immediately, they said.Ships loaded with crude oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months, unable to safely travel through the waterway, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gasoline supplies typically traveled before the war began.“It’s going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place … particularly to get people on the ground to restart some of these assets,” said Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy.Still, oil prices slipped early Monday after the deal was announced.Brent crude, the international standard, was down $3.45 at $83.89 per barrel. U.S. benchmark crude oil lost $4.03 to $80.85 per barrel.Those prices are still well above the roughly $70 per barrel where oil was trading before the war started.As the higher prices unwind, ships that have been stranded will have to exit the strait, and then new tankers will have to come in to be loaded, Evans said.“To bring a ship in, you need to be confident that you’ve got a big enough window of safety to bring it in, load it and move it out,” he added.Oil tankers also move slowly, he explained. It takes months to travel from the strait to distant countries, deliver the crude oil to a refinery for processing and then arrive at its final destination.In addition, some producers in the Middle East paused extracting oil from the ground, known as a shut-in, when they ran out of storage space. Restarting those operations can be a slow process.Countries such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, where there are alternate pipelines or routes besides the Strait of Hormuz to deliver oil, may be among the quickest to resume production, said Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, an analytics firm.“But places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they’ve had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult … it may well take about a year before they get back,” he said.Investment in the energy system, which can take years to see the results, ground to a halt after the strait’s closure, Gelder said. So it will take time for this capital to restart.Countries that shut in oil production won’t want to restart until they know there is a stable, durable strait, and that a ceasefire will last more than 30 or 60 days, said Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.“We don’t know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of trapped material is going to be,” he said. —Cathy Bussewitz, Associated Press

1 day ago

Strait Of Hormuz Reopens, But Global Oil Supply Recovery Could Take Months

New York: High oil and gasoline prices and energy supply problems won't be solved overnight, despite an agreement to end the Iran war and open the Strait of Hormuz announced Sunday.President Donald Trump Announces US-Iran Peace Deal To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz, End To Naval Blockade Energy recovery to take monthsIt will likely take months before energy companies can resume operations to the point of meeting the world's demand, according to energy experts. The slow pace of the process of shipping and refining crude oil, and doubts about the security of travelling through the strait mean the effect won't be seen immediately, they said.Ships loaded with crude oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months, unable to safely travel through the waterway, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gasoline supplies typically travelled before the war began.West Asia Crisis Impact Limited On Fertilisers, Pharma Supplies: JP Nadda “It's going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place ... particularly to get people on the ground to restart some of these assets,” said Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy.Oil prices ease after dealStill, oil prices slipped early Monday after the deal was announced.Brent crude, the international standard, was down $3.45 at $83.89 per barrel. U.S. benchmark crude oil lost $4.03 to $80.85 per barrel.Those prices are still well above the roughly $70 per barrel where oil was trading before the war started.Fuel Prices To Be Reviewed Based On Crude Oil Supply: Suresh Gopi Stranded tankers and logistics delaysAs the higher prices unwind, ships that have been stranded will have to exit the strait, and then new tankers will have to come in to be loaded, Evans said.“To bring a ship in, you need to be confident that you've got a big enough window of safety to bring it in, load it and move it out," he added.Oil tankers also move slowly, he explained. It takes months to travel from the strait to distant countries, deliver the crude oil to a refinery for processing and then arrive at its final destination.Amazon To Expand Robotics And Automation In India Fulfilment Centres Production restart varies by countryIn addition, some producers in the Middle East paused extracting oil from the ground, known as a shut-in, when they ran out of storage space. Restarting those operations can be a slow process.Countries such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, where there are alternate pipelines or routes besides the Strait of Hormuz to deliver oil, may be among the quickest to resume production, said Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, an analytics firm.“But places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they've had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult ... it may well take about a year before they get back," he said.FPIs Pull ₹62,853 Crore From Indian Equities In Early June Amid Global Uncertainty Investment pause and uncertaintyInvestment in the energy system, which can take years to see the results, ground to a halt after the strait's closure, Gelder said. So it will take time for this capital to restart.Countries that shut in oil production won't want to restart until they know there is a stable, durable strait, and that a ceasefire will last more than 30 or 60 days, said Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.“We don't know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of trapped material is going to be,” he said.(Except for the headline, this article has not been edited by FPJ's editorial team and is auto-generated from an agency feed.)

2 days ago