The Dutch defence ministry warns that Russia could be capable of launching a “limited” military operation against a NATO country within one year after the war in Ukraine ends. In its annual defence policy strategy document, the ministry describes Europe as being in a “grey area” between war and peace and says Dutch and allied security planning must account for continued heightened risk rather than a rapid return to normal conditions.
The ministry states that Dutch intelligence services estimate Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with Europe. In a worst-case scenario, it says, a limited war against NATO members could be possible within a year of the Ukraine war ending. The report also calls for faster defence modernisation and increased investment by the Netherlands, highlighting unmanned systems such as drones as part of the effort to improve readiness.
Other outlets report the same core warning, reflecting the Dutch ministry’s assessment that Russian military posture and planning could translate into near-term pressure on NATO even after the Ukraine conflict concludes. The reporting also frames the warning as a prompt for defence capability strengthening across Europe.
