Multiple reports describe an internal Home Office assessment that estimates the long-term cost of granting asylum seekers permission to remain in the UK where decisions rely on rights under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The analysis focuses on cases where individuals can argue for continued residence under protections related to family life, which can affect deportation outcomes.
According to the reporting, the Home Office calculated that granting each such asylum seeker the ability to remain in the UK carries an estimated lifetime cost of £141,000 to the taxpayer. Aggregated across the relevant group discussed in the article, the total is described as nearing £5 billion over their lifetimes.
The sources frame the figures as originating from internal modelling within the Home Office. They do not provide additional methodological detail in the excerpts provided, nor do they include responses from other stakeholders in this summary. The claims therefore center on the existence of the analysis and the stated per-person and total cost estimates tied to ECHR-based outcomes.
