Aramco CEO Warns Hormuz Oil Disruption Could Delay Market Normalization to 2027

World losing 100 million barrels a week of oil with Hormuz closed, Saudi Aramco chief says Submitted by MEE staff on Mon, 05/11/2026 - 18:14 Amin Nasser says their is a disconnect between oil futures prices and physical reality, as he warns about 'demand ‌rationing' Amin Hassan Nasser, CEO of oil giant Aramco, during the Saudi-US investment forum in Riyadh, on 13 May 2025 (Fayez Nureldine/AFP) Off Global oil markets are losing 100 million barrels every week that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the head of Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer said on Monday. “The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced,” Saudi Aramco chief executive officer Amin Nasser told analysts on an earnings call. Nasser said the world is coping with the shock through "demand rationing" of available supplies. "We expect demand ‌rationing to continue as long as supply remains disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. If normal trade and shipping resume, we anticipate a very robust return to demand growth," Nasser said. Energy analysts have already said the collapse of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz is being felt unevenly, with countries in Asia that are almost totally dependent on the Gulf for their oil, rationing. In the West, particularly in the US, energy prices have risen, but there have been no measures to restrict consumption. Oil prices soared on Monday by more than three percent after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support”, with traders betting on a return to conflict. But Nasser echoed other CEOs and energy experts who have said there is a disconnect between the physical price of oil and what is being traded in the futures market. As of 11 May, Brent crude futures for July delivery are trading at around $105 per barrel. However, the price customers are paying for oil in the real world is substantially higher.  A tipping point  Georges Elhedery, the CEO of HSBC Bank, said last month that the price paid for a barrel of oil reached as high as $286 in Sri Lanka. Other experts have said that buyers in Asia are paying around $150 per barrel of oil. Nasser said the market has been buttressed by drawing down inventories stored at sea and on land, which he called “the only buffer that is available today”. He warned that global stockpiles have been “materially depleted”. 'Swinging into action:' The Saudi Arabian pipeline designed to bypass Hormuz Read More » The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of oil by its member countries at the start of the war. China, the world’s second-largest consumer of oil after the US, also quietly slashed its imports of oil by 25 percent from pre-war levels. Those moves have helped keep prices in check, but Nasser warned against complacency. “The aggregate inventory level globally is not a proper reflection of the current physical market tightness that we see,” he said. Oil traders, analysts and US banks have all warned that the global energy market will hit a tipping point in June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. “If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened sometime in June/July, global oil inventories will hit an operational floor and result in greater rationing, mostly outside the US,” JP Morgan warned last week. Aramco posted a 26 percent jump in first-quarter adjusted net income, beating analyst expectations. The kingdom is exporting between 60 and 70 percent of its pre-war volume, but at substantially higher prices. Whereas Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for exports, Saudi Arabia has been able to bypass the waterway via its East-West pipeline that terminates at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Nasser called the pipeline a “critical lifeline” and said it was currently pumping at its five-million-barrel-per-day capacity, but looking to increase that number. The kingdom is also using the Red Sea to export 900,000 barrels per day of refined products. War on Iran News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

Aramco CEO Says Energy Market May Not Normalize Until 2027 Amid Billion-Barrel Supply Shock From the Trump administration's recent Project Freedom push to mounting warnings from Wall Street analysts, security experts, energy strategists, and major oil company executives, there is a growing sense that the global energy market is quickly approaching a breaking point due to the heavily disrupted Strait of Hormuz. There was good news over the weekend, as a Qatari LNG tanker transited the Hormuz chokepoint. However, a second tanker from the energy-rich Gulf country abruptly made a U-turn in the Strait early Monday, dashing hopes for any near-term normalization, especially since the U.S. and Iran have yet to reach a peace deal. The countdown to global energy chaos is increasingly viewed in weeks, not months. If the maritime chokepoint remains impaired for the next several weeks, according to Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil traders, then the "tipping point to something has to give is June." Warnings of incoming energy market turmoil continued on Monday, with the CEO of Aramco, formerly known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Company. Amin Nasser warned that the market could lose around 100 million barrels of oil each week if Hormuz remains closed. Nasser told investors on an earnings call earlier today that if the Hormuz chokepoint is disrupted for another couple of weeks, then it would take the global energy market until 2027 to normalize.  Here are the most important comments from Nasser's call with the analyst: Energy Supply Shock Is Largest Ever Experienced It'll Take Months for Oil Market to Rebalance Even If Hormuz Reopens Today Market to Normalize in 2027 if Hormuz Opening Is Delayed by Few More Weeks Market Has Seen Supply Loss of About 1 Billion Barrel of Oil Alternative Flows Bypassing Hormuz, Strategic Reserve Releases Partially offset that Market Could Lose Around 100 Mln Barrels of Oil For Every Week Demand Rationing to Continue As Long As Supply Remains Disrupted Return to Demand Growth Expected to Be Robust If Trade Resumes Demand Growth to Be Driven by Urgency to Ensure Security of Supply Supply Chains Will Need Several Months to Return to Normal Building on the countdown-to-energy-chaos theme, Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats warned clients that the oil market is in a "race against time" as the maritime chokepoint remains heavily disrupted. He noted that global supply buffers, which have kept crude prices contained during the ten-week Iran war, are starting to come under pressure. Rats said that nearly 1 billion barrels have already been lost, yet Brent crude  futures have not exceeded 2022 levels because the market entered the crisis with spare supply buffers and because traders kept assuming Hormuz would reopen. "The ability of the US to continue this elevated level of exports is hard to gauge but appears under more pressure," the analyst noted, adding, "The United States' 3.8m b/d increase in exports and China's 5.5m b/d cut in imports have shielded the rest of the world from 9.3m b/d of tightness."  Rats warned, "Even if the Strait reopened tomorrow, the time required to restart fields, repair refineries, and reposition tanker tonnage means the market is on track to lose another billion barrels over the balance of 2026." In a separate note, JPMorgan's resident commodity expert, Natasha Kaneva, explained where the next phase of the global energy shock could unfold. Kaneva's chart on global oil inventories is truly shocking. Read Kaneva's full note here. Overall, the warnings are piling up. If the maritime chokepoint remains shuttered through this month, real panic may begin then. Tyler Durden Mon, 05/11/2026 - 10:15