Goldman Sachs says renewed tensions involving Iran and the United States could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and slow the anticipated recovery in Middle Eastern oil supplies. The concern is that even a limited flare-up could affect tanker routes and logistics, reducing the pace at which regional crude supply normalizes.
According to Goldman’s estimates, Persian Gulf crude production in June remains well below earlier benchmarks. One outlet reports that June production is about 10.5 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels, indicating that supply has not fully rebounded.
Other reporting links the latest development to a resurgence in conflict between Washington and Tehran, which also moves market expectations. Brent crude futures are described as briefly rising back above $80 a barrel amid the renewed risk. Overall, the sources describe Goldman’s assessment as scenario-based: the supply recovery timeline depends on whether tensions remain contained or lead to further disruption of shipping in one of the world’s key chokepoints.
