A new Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll finds Chris Hipkins slightly overtaking Christopher Luxon in voters’ preferred prime minister choice. Multiple outlets report the shift is narrow, with Hipkins moving just ahead in the latest measure. Despite Hipkins’ lead in personal preference, the poll indicates the governing Coalition still has the numbers to form a government, though only narrowly. One report notes the Coalition would be able to form government “by a hair,” emphasizing that seat margins appear slim rather than secure. The coverage frames the change as part of an increasingly competitive race between the two leading political figures, sometimes described as a “battle” for the top role. Overall, the sources agree the poll shows: (1) Hipkins has a small advantage over Luxon on preferred prime minister; and (2) the Coalition’s parliamentary position remains viable for government formation, but with minimal room for error.