The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global oil demand is set to fall this year for the first time since 2020, marking the first annual decline since the COVID-19 period. Multiple outlets report that the outlook is being pressured by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is described as throttling exports from the Gulf and affecting supply flows. The IEA also notes that supply has increased in June, indicating that supply-side conditions are not uniform and that markets are still adjusting.
Quartz and CNBC add that any potential recovery later in the year is becoming more uncertain, even if earlier projections assumed improvement in the second half. Euronews similarly highlights that the conflict between the United States and Iran is a key driver behind the weaker demand forecast.
One outlet, The National Observer, reports that the IEA expects demand to rebound in 2027. It also notes that analysts question whether the Iran war could contribute to a longer-term decline rather than a quick return to growth. Overall, the sources converge on the IEA’s central forecast of a near-term annual contraction and the role of geopolitical disruptions in shaping the uncertainty around the rest of the year and beyond.
