The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global oil demand is set to fall for the first time in a year since 2020. In its assessment, the IEA points to increased uncertainty from renewed escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, warning that the situation could further complicate the outlook for consumption and supply. The IEA’s forecast indicates that demand dynamics are shifting enough to produce an annual decline, ending a period of growth since 2020. Both outlets link the forecast to heightened geopolitical risk associated with the U.S.-Iran war, which can affect oil markets through expectations about disruption, pricing, and adjustments by consuming countries and companies. While the IEA’s overall projection centers on demand turning downward, it also stresses that the potential for further escalation introduces additional uncertainty. The outlook therefore reflects both a baseline expectation of weaker demand and a scenario environment where geopolitical developments could alter demand patterns or accelerate market responses.