Multiple outlets say the world’s food supply is not yet fully disrupted by the wars in Ukraine and parts of the Middle East, but risk factors are stacking up. Deutsche Welle reports that global food systems have so far avoided a full breakdown from those conflicts. However, it warns that adding a strong weather pattern such as El Niño could worsen conditions in major farming regions.
Inquirer.net adds that a potentially record-strength El Niño is intensifying across the Pacific. It cites a U.S. NOAA outlook that gives a 63% chance the event could become “very strong” during the year. Depending on how El Niño affects local weather, some agricultural areas could face drought or flooding, threatening crop yields.
The same report notes that the economic impact could interact with conflict-related pressures on energy markets. It cites a JP Morgan warning that El Niño together with around $100 oil could push food inflation higher, potentially increasing the cost of staples and making shortages more likely in vulnerable countries.
Overall, the sources describe a scenario in which wars and energy price pressures combine with El Niño-linked weather shocks to increase the risk of a hunger crisis.
