An EY economic outlook warns that a prolonged Iran-related conflict could materially damage the UK economy, particularly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for an extended period. According to the report, UK GDP growth is expected to slow to about 0.5% this year. It further projects that GDP could contract by around 0.2% next year under a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remains shut into 2027. The analysis links the potential downturn to the economic effects of sustained trade and energy disruptions associated with the region. While the coverage highlights the recession risk for the UK, the reported figures focus on broad macroeconomic outcomes rather than specific measures or policy responses. Overall, the sources agree on the central forecast: mild slowdown in the current year and a small contraction in the following year if the disruption persists through the forecast horizon.