IMD forecasts below-normal September rainfall after hottest August since 1901

India is bracing for below-average rainfall this September, signaling an early end to the monsoon season with overall inadequate precipitation. August set a record for high temperatures unseen since 1901, and the strengthening of El Niño conditions is further exacerbating the rainfall deficit. Unfortunately, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are failing to enhance monsoonal dynamics.

El Niño conditions are expected to intensify during the remainder of the monsoon; IMD has forecast above-normal temperatures over most of India in September

September rainfall is predicted to be below normal across India. This forecast suggests the monsoon season will end with deficient cumulative rainfall. August was the warmest August recorded in India since 1901. El Nino conditions are strengthening, negatively impacting monsoon rainfall. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions will not benefit monsoon activities.

India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September after recording its hottest August since 1901, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.In its monthly forecast, the IMD said rainfall across the country in September is expected to be below 91% of the long-period average (LPA). The forecast points to another weather concern after a month marked by record temperatures and deficient rainfall.September Rainfall Outlook Raises ConcernThe LPA refers to rainfall recorded over a particular region during a given period, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years. For September, the LPA is about 167.9 mm, based on data from 1971 to 2020, PTI reports.Monthly Outlook for Rainfall during September 2026Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during September 2026 is most likely to be below normal (<91% of Long Period Average (LPA)). Spatially, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However,… pic.twitter.com/5vwUhsamMB— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) August 31, 2026 The IMD also expects monthly average maximum temperatures to remain above normal during September. Taken together, the rainfall and temperature forecasts suggest that unusually warm conditions could remain a key feature of India's weather as the monsoon season progresses.El Nino Conditions StrengtheningIMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific."These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months," Mohapatra said.Moderate to strong El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific were also a key reason for the below-normal rainfall recorded in August.Kaushambi (UP) Firecracker Factory Blast: 11 Killed, 5 Injured; Several Houses Collapse After ExplosionAugust Breaks Heat RecordIndia experienced its hottest August since 1901, with the mean temperature reaching 28.01 degrees Celsius, compared with the normal mean temperature of 27.34 degrees Celsius.The average minimum temperature in August 2026 was also the highest since 1901. It reached 24.36 degrees Celsius against the normal of 23.68 degrees Celsius, showing that the month's exceptional warmth was reflected in minimum temperatures as well.Also Watch:Rainfall Seventh Lowest Since 2001August recorded deficient rainfall of 213.3 mm, the seventh-lowest figure since 2001, according to the IMD.Four low-pressure systems formed during the month and collectively persisted for 26 days. However, their rainfall activity remained largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic plains, leaving other parts of the country with a rainfall deficit.The figures present a striking contrast: despite four low-pressure systems lasting for most of August, rainfall remained deficient across the country. With below-normal rainfall now likely in September and El Nino conditions expected to strengthen, the IMD's latest forecast keeps the focus firmly on rainfall and temperatures in the coming month.