A Deloitte Canada report says an American withdrawal from USMCA would significantly affect Canada’s economy, but would be “severe but not cataclysmic.” The report assesses that the loss of the pact’s trade framework would reduce Canada’s gross domestic product over the coming decade.
Across outlets, Deloitte’s estimate is cited that Canada’s GDP would fall by about 1.6%, equivalent to roughly $402 billion over the next 10 years. The report also argues that Canada’s response cannot rely on shifting trade to other countries alone. While expanding partnerships could help fill part of any gap created by a U.S. exit, additional policy measures would be needed to address broader economic impacts.
Outlets vary mainly in emphasis: some focus on the headline GDP magnitude and dollar estimate, while others highlight Deloitte’s recommendation to look beyond trade diversification to mitigate the effects. All accounts attribute the projections to Deloitte’s analysis rather than to government decisions or confirmed U.S. action, framing the findings as a scenario-based assessment.
