A powerful “super” El Niño is projected to increase heat-related deaths worldwide, with estimates suggesting as many as 451,000 excess deaths from June 2026 through February 2027 compared with a typical year. The warning comes from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, which attributes the risk to El Niño boosting global temperatures and increasing the number of extremely hot days.
Several outlets report the study’s expectation that the largest toll falls on developing countries, where vulnerabilities such as food insecurity, high energy costs, and limited heat-health infrastructure are higher. Reported regional projections include about 66,800 additional heat deaths in Africa’s Sahel, with nearly half in Nigeria, and additional deaths across parts of Asia, including roughly 19,300 in Indonesia and 19,400 in countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Other figures cited include about 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
Outlets also emphasize that El Niño is expected to peak later in 2026 and may decline by around February, but the study projects elevated heat risk to persist beyond that period. Some coverage describes the scenario as preventable with targeted measures, such as heat warnings and cooling and hydration support, while noting the approach will be detailed in an upcoming peer-reviewed publication.
