A new research report warns that record global heat driven by a strong El Niño could lead to as many as 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by the end of February. The estimate compares the expected number of heat deaths in this period during the El Niño event with what would typically occur in a non-El Niño year.
The report, released by the Climate Impact Lab, links the risk to extreme heat and to related conditions such as drought, wildfires, and shrinking water supplies. It says the highest toll is likely in poorer countries, where populations face greater vulnerability due to food insecurity and high energy costs. While the El Niño is expected to end by February, the authors say the danger from heat could continue beyond that timeframe, with effects potentially lasting into the following summer. The outlets also differ mainly in scope and detail, with one emphasizing the broader chain of impacts (drought, fires, water stress) and the other focusing more directly on the headline death estimate.
