Several outlets report that prediction markets and commentary identify other figures as more likely to win the Nobel Peace Prize than U.S. President Donald Trump. ABC Australia and TIME describe “frontrunners” and “contenders,” while Newsweek frames the comparison in terms of odds, noting that Trump’s probability is low relative to named candidates.
The Independent adds context by discussing Trump’s ongoing interest in the prize and points to an earlier outcome: it says Trump sought the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 but did not win, with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado taking the award instead. Other outlets similarly emphasize that the conversation focuses on who could be selected this year or in 2026, rather than on a confirmed list from the Nobel Committee.
While the outlets differ in how they present contenders—using prediction-market framing, expert assessment, or broad candidate roundups—they converge on the premise that Trump is unlikely compared with other possible winners, and that the Nobel selection remains ultimately determined by the Nobel Committee.
