IMF, World Bank and IEA warn of fuel scarcity risk if Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted

IMF, World Bank, WTO and IEA discuss impact of Iran war The heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organisation met on Thursday to discuss their institutions’ response to the economic and energy impacts of the war in the Middle East, according to a joint statement released on Friday. The organisations warned that “if shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience.” Referring to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, the institutions said they also explored options to “further enhance collective support through multilateral and bilateral actions” to help address the crisis and mitigate its wider economic consequences.

The joint statement highlights that the surge in energy prices due to the Iran war is having a disproportionate effect on lower income countries.

WASHINGTON, United States (AFP) -- The heads of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and International Energy Agency warned on Friday of the risks to fuel security during peak demand summer months if oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not return to normal. "Global oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace in response to the major loss of supply through the Strait of Hormuz," the heads of the agencies said in a joint statement. "If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience." The US-Israel war on Iran has engulfed the Middle East in conflict, with Tehran's retaliatory action targeting Washington's regional allies and virtually blocking the key waterway, through which a fifth of global energy supplies normally pass. In April, the heads of the IMF, World Bank and IEA announced they were forming a group to coordinate the agencies' response to the crisis, particularly for vulnerable economies. In Friday's joint statement, they again highlighted that the surge in energy and fertilizer prices due to the war was having a disproportionate effect on lower income countries. "Higher fertilizer prices are of particular concern as many countries enter the planting season," they said. At the IMF's Spring Meetings this year, the organisation's chief Kristalina Georgieva highlighted that the war had forced a paring of the global growth forecast. She estimated that vulnerable economies would need between $20-50 billion in financial assistance due to the economic fallout of the conflict. This week, the Fund announced that Bangladesh had requested a financial assistance package and that it was in talks to develop a programme to help the South Asian country. The war has had broad-ranging impacts around the world, especially on countries that are heavily dependent on oil and gas imports from the Gulf, which includes much of south and southeast Asia. Fertilizer supplies have also been impacted, and countries dependent on imports have been hit hard, with food security a key concern.