US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks face uncertainty after Hezbollah rejection

Opinion: How a regional defence pact could deal the final blow to Israel's violent expansionism The brief exchange of fire between Iran and Israel was a truer statement of the balance of power that now exists between these two countries than the many spurious claims by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about having “smashed”, “destroyed” or “obliterated” the armed forces of the Islamic Republic. In firing up to 30 missiles towards Israel in retaliation against its renewed bombing of Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, Iran broke the model that Israel had imposed on the two other ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza: namely that you cease, and we keep on firing. Furthermore, it showed that it would target northern Israel to protect a third country, Lebanon, which is also something of a first. In announcing that it would halt fire, Iran’s military command said that if Israel resumed its attacks anywhere, including southern Lebanon, “much more severe and crushing measures than before will follow”. Read more: How a regional defence pact could deal the final blow to Israel's violent expansionism Security forces stand guard during a rally by supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement, in solidarity with Lebanon, in Sanaa, Yemen, on 18 May 2026 (Mohammed Huwais/AFP)

How a regional defence pact could deal the final blow to Israel's violent expansionism Submitted by David Hearst on Tue, 06/09/2026 - 17:40 Resistance by Iran and its allies has been the only thing stopping Israel's endless quest to seize territory and expel native populations Security forces stand guard during a rally by supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement, in solidarity with Lebanon, in Sanaa, Yemen, on 18 May 2026 (Mohammed Huwais/AFP) Off The brief exchange of fire between Iran and Israel was a truer statement of the balance of power that now exists between these two countries than the many spurious claims by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about having “smashed”, “destroyed” or “obliterated” the armed forces of the Islamic Republic. In firing up to 30 missiles towards Israel in retaliation against its renewed bombing of Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut, Iran broke the model that Israel had imposed on the two other ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza: namely that you cease, and we keep on firing. Furthermore, it showed that it would target northern Israel to protect a third country, Lebanon, which is also something of a first. In announcing that it would halt fire, Iran’s military command said that if Israel resumed its attacks anywhere, including southern Lebanon, “much more severe and crushing measures than before will follow”. It has taken time for the Islamic Republic to respond to Israel’s campaigns on Gaza, Lebanon and itself as one war - which is what it is - but at last, it is being forced to do so. No one else is; least of all the Lebanese government. If Iran and Hezbollah between them force even a partial pullback of Israeli troops in Lebanon, they will have been more effective at ensuring the return of its own citizens to their homes than Lebanon’s president. As Amal Saad, a scholar on Hezbollah, wrote in these pages, the ceasefire agreement signed by Lebanese representatives with Israel and the US belongs to a category of political submission with little or no precedent. “Lebanon, a state under attack, co-signs a document that conditions a ceasefire not on the withdrawal of the occupying power from its territory, but on the withdrawal of its own citizens from their land,” she wrote. Iran's display of defiance puts a spoke in these wheels. It has also substantially weakened Netanyahu's relationship with Trump The ceasefire was not conditional on an Israeli withdrawal, a prisoner release, or a return of the population, but on Hezbollah withdrawing from the south. It’s little wonder, then, that Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz have been crowing that they had won on all fronts.  Netanyahu said that Israel had proved it could fight a war on three fronts simultaneously, and that its forces should advance to a line that occupied 70 percent of Gaza.  Katz committed himself to the mass ethnic cleansing of the enclave: large-scale “voluntary migration” that Israel would implement “at the proper time and in the proper manner”. Katz has also said that the Israeli army is using the same tactics in Lebanon as it did in Gaza, where entire cities were reduced to rubble. Both Netanyahu and Katz speak without any apparent fear of incriminating themselves in the genocide case that is still before the International Court of Justice. Stubborn resistance Iran’s display of defiance puts a spoke in these wheels. It has also substantially weakened Netanyahu’s relationship with Trump. Israeli jets were on the runway on Monday, ready to resume full-scale war on Iran, according to multiple reports, when Trump called Netanyahu and told him to stop. Trump was true to his word. Asked in an interview with The Financial Times whether he could restrain the Israeli prime minister, Trump replied: “He won’t have any choice. I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.” The war on Iran was the brainchild of these two men alone, based on false Mossad intelligence that the Islamic Republic was weaker than it proved to be. Iran’s stubborn resistance to being defeated, alongside its ability to continually rebuild its missile and drone forces, is now imposing substantial strains on this alliance. Iran will no longer accept endless talks. It is creating deterrence on its own terms Read More » Both leaders face elections. Both are under attack domestically for having offshored, and thus lost control of, the war they jointly started. Israeli journalist Ben Caspit complained in Ma’ariv that national security in Israel had been “privatised” and handed over to Trump, to the extent that military decisions needed approval from Washington. His colleague, Avi Ashkenazi, said that “Israel must not accept the American dictate to sit still and refrain from responding”, noting that this could risk Israel’s very existence. On Monday night, Netanyahu had to content himself with a truculent statement that he would halt attacks on Iran “for now”. Trump, too, suffered a major setback last week when the House of Representatives voted “to remove all US forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran”. The resolution, which has no force of law, was supported by four Republicans who defected to vote with the Democrats.  Trump railed on Truth Social: “Yesterday, in a meaningless vote, the House voted, 4 bad Republicans and all of the Dumocrats, to limit my War Powers, right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Who would do such an unpatriotic thing.” But it is clear that the antiwar mood is spreading in Republican ranks - and Trump knows this is a threat. Diverging agendas It is clearer, too, that the US and Israeli agendas on Iran now diverge. Trump evidently does not believe that either a resumption of the war or the continuation of the Hormuz blockade will bring about an end to the conflict.  His insistence that negotiations are continuing, and that a memorandum of understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is within reach, reflects the belief that negotiations with Iran are the only way for the US armada to stand down. Trump started the war with dreams of a quick victory. He now has to end it as fast as he can. For Netanyahu, a US peace deal with Iran - with the Islamic Republic still in place - would mark the end of that once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to expand Israel’s borders and impose itself as the region’s new hegemon. That window of opportunity started in Trump’s first term, when he appointed a settler advocate as an ambassador, and recognised Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights and Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. There was no quid pro quo, no commitments Israel had to give about a Palestinian state. These were gifts on a silver platter. The golden alliance resumed in Trump’s second term, culminating in the US attack on Iran - a strategic goal that Netanyahu had been championing for at least 40 years. During this period, and knowing that he would never again have a US president as gullible as this one, Netanyahu pursued a policy of maximum territorial conquest.  But lebensraum is not the primary aim. Rather, it is to clear Gaza and southern Lebanon of their native populations. About one million Palestinians in Gaza have no homes to go back to, even as rubble, while another million people remain displaced in Lebanon.  The new Nakba, or catastrophe, that is still being planned by Netanyahu and Katz would be several times larger than the one that Israel committed in 1948. It would mean destroying not just homes, hospitals and schools, but everything that keeps society in Gaza and southern Lebanon functioning. As analyst Gideon Levy writes: “Once Gaza’s population is reduced to a disparate mass without an organized society, without basic services, essential institutions and, of course, without leadership, the complete disintegration of the social fabric will make it easier for Israel to move to the next phase, which it has never relinquished, the phase of expulsion. Only then will the Gaza problem be finally resolved. Only in this manner.” 'Logic of elimination' Patrick Wolfe, an Australian scholar of settler-colonialism, has described the settler’s attitude as “the logic of elimination”.  “How did colonialists justify their attitude to the indigenous population? As in other colonialist enterprises, they dehumanised them, portraying them as ‘savages’ or ‘primitive’,” historian Ilan Pappe writes. But he goes on to note that settler-colonialism differs from classical colonialism in one important respect: whereas the British in India regarded themselves as bringing modernity to “savages”, settler-colonialists see themselves as modernising the land. Its people must be got rid of. Netanyahu and Katz are pursuing this vision, in war and peace, against Palestinians wherever they live. It is the refusal of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran to disarm that keeps Israel from fulfilling its vision of mass ethnic cleansing Since Hamas handed all its hostages back, Israel has broken the Gaza ceasefire around 3,000 times. More than 900 Palestinians have been killed and 2,900 wounded. Dozens more have been abducted by Israeli forces. The Yellow Line to which the Israeli army was supposed to withdraw has been creeping inexorably forward. The 53 percent of Gaza occupied by Israel became 60 percent, and late last month, Netanyahu promised to make that 70 percent, as a “start” towards complete control. “We are currently squeezing Hamas; we now control 60 percent of the territory of the Strip - you know this. We were at 50, we moved to 60. My directive is to move to,” he said, before pausing as someone in the crowd called out “100” . “Let’s go step by step. First of all, 70. Let’s start with that,” Netanyahu said. “We’re pressing them from all sides, we’ll deal with the remnants.” Meanwhile, Israel has been killing all the Hamas leaders who agreed to hand over the hostages in exchange for ending the war. Mohammed Odeh, Hamas’s most recent military commander, was killed last month in a targeted strike. Vision of exile There is no sign of the “master plan” that Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, presented in Davos on 22 January. No foundations have been laid for the New Rafah, with its 100,000 housing units, 200 education centres, 75 medical facilities, and 180 cultural, religious and vocational institutions. This is land that is under full Israeli control. No one from the Palestinian technocratic government has stepped foot in Gaza. There is no international peacekeeping force and no money in the kitty to do any of this. The Board of Peace’s coffers are empty. Nickolay Mladenov, the board’s high representative for Gaza, puts all the blame on Hamas’s refusal to disarm. According to the plan, first comes the group’s disarmament, then the International Stabilisation Force turns up, and only then does Israel withdraw. But none of this is happening.  As every Palestinian knows, Netanyahu and Katz are not planning an Abu Dhabi on the shores of the Mediterranean. They are actively planning chaos, civil war, and militias fighting each other - for these are the surest ways of pushing Palestinians into the sea and into exile. But it is the refusal of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran to disarm that keeps Israel from fulfilling its vision of mass ethnic cleansing. They are the only impediments to a mass exodus of refugees who would flood Saudi Arabia, Jordan and ultimately Europe itself. Hezbollah has clearly been able to reconstitute its military strength after losing its leadership several times over to Israel’s assassinations in 2024. According to one authoritative analysis, it is concentrating on the quality of its strikes against Israeli military targets, rather than the quantity.  It keeps forces in reserve. It affords its local units a substantial degree of autonomy while maintaining command and control. These are no mean military feats under daily Israeli drone surveillance and strikes. The ceasefires that Israel has signed so far, and which have been endorsed by Israel’s neighbours, are simply covers for pursuing the same dream of an ethnically cleansed Gaza and southern Lebanon, under a different format. Regional imperative This is the reality that the region has yet to wake up to. The agenda is not about normalisation with a country that does this. It’s not about disarmament. It’s about rearmament.  The only way Israel’s agenda can be stopped is by having the hard power to do so. Turkey, Egypt and Jordan have the most to fear from Israel’s plans, chiefly because whether or not Netanyahu continues in power, the strategic goal will remain the same. No land that Netanyahu has conquered will be returned by a Naftali Bennett as prime minister.  Israel in its current mood, which Netanyahu has described as its second war of independence, does not respect anyone else’s sovereignty. It will establish air fields in the Iraqi desert without applying to Baghdad for planning permission. How Hezbollah rebuilt itself for a war of attrition with Israel Read More » In addition, these countries know that they are next on Israel’s target list. They have held back because they don’t want a war with Israel. Turkish armed forces say they are several years away from having anything that could deter Israeli jets.   It is not that they are doing nothing. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stopped Trump from using Kurdish forces to invade Iran. King Abdullah of Jordan stopped Trump from backing Israel’s annexation of the West Bank - for now.  But these are tactical, not strategic changes of direction. No leader has stopped Israel’s project to redraw its own borders.  It is now a regional imperative to do so. Every nation in the Middle East will feel the consequences of Israeli success.  It is well past time to arrange a regional framework and defence pact that would become a fact on the ground, which neither Israel nor the latest occupant of the White House could ignore.  An end to the war with Iran, if it happens, must be the start of a regional initiative to ensure it never happens again. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye. War on Iran Opinion Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:29 Update Date Override 0

Trump Insists US In 'Final Throes' Of Iran Deal; Death Toll Soars As Israel Pounds South Lebanon The southern Lebanese city of Tyre is being pounded by Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday, despite President Trump's insistence that Lebanon not come under attack. Israel's military had hours prior issued an evacuation order for all civilians in the area, amid the unraveling and failing ceasefire. Casualties are already high, coming at a tense moment after starting on Sunday Iran sent ballistic missiles against Israel over its renewed airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where it says Hezbollah command centers are located. The NY Times reports of the growing death toll Tuesday, "At least eight people were killed in the bombardment, and dozens more were wounded, Lebanon’s health ministry said. The Israeli military also targeted towns and villages across southern Lebanon, including areas that were not covered by evacuation warnings, according to the country’s state-run news agency." Attack on Tyre, via AFP So clearly the air raids are expanding, per the report, even after the latest Trump warnings directed at Netanyahu to not do anything that would sabotage a broader Iran peace agreement. President Trump is still maintaining that Washington and Tehran are in the "final throes" of cementing a deal, and is even suggesting (once again) that an agreement will be done in days: Asked whether it would be matter of days or weeks, he said it would take “two or three days”. Tehran has repeatedly stated any deal should include Lebanon—where Israel has been pressing its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah—and fired missiles at Israel on Sunday. That prompted Israeli retaliation, despite US pressure for restraint. Iran fired another salvo before announcing it was ceasing military action, and hours later Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the “fire on that front is contained”. Of course, we've been hearing that the war is merely 'days' away from ending from basically the start of the war. And yet, all too predictably, the two sides keep going up the escalation ladder in an escalation trap. But the White House is saying that it will forge a deal which is good for the American people, whether Israel likes it or not. "Israel may like that, they may not like that — but this is in the best interest of the United States," Vice President JD Vance spelled out to Fox this week. Escalation: Houthis in Yemen unleash ballistic missile on southern Israel, as Hezbollah sends drones on north... ⚡️Interception in Eilat pic.twitter.com/uUsV3O70VE — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 8, 2026 But in the meantime Lebanon continues to suffer, also as Hezbollah and most recently the Houthis out of Yemen fire projectiles on Israel. According to some of the latest via Al Jazeera: For the residents in Tyre, anybody who is staying behind is in a lot of danger. In the past hour, we’ve seen another Israeli air strike near a Palestinian refugee camp. The strike happened at a roundabout leading into the camp, a very busy location. There’s also a bus station right at the entrance to the el-Buss refugee camp. Initial reports are coming in of a lot of injuries in that attack. Israel continues to carry out artillery fire on the city, and there are drones flying over Tyre. For anyone trying to get out of the city, the road is quite dangerous. There have been a series of air strikes north of Tyre along the same road people would use to exit. So the Lebanon conflict is escalating, not growing more stable, which doesn't bode well for achieving a final Iran deal. Tehran has insisted all along that a deal incorporate the Israel-Lebanon situation.  Reporter: Did you ask Netanyahu not to hit back? Trump: No. I said do what's right but I want you to stop as quickly as you can. Because they have to stop. It has to do with Lebanon. And it has to stop. We want to get it finished. pic.twitter.com/lnnstEPFA2 — Acyn (@Acyn) June 9, 2026 Vance had also said in his latest comments to Fox that "I think where the president has been very clear here is that while Israel obviously has some objectives that it has, the United States' main objective in Iran is to ensure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon." It seems Washington is willing to tolerate some Israeli 'counter-terror' action, but only up to a point. Probably the limits will be reached in more renewed bombings of Beirut itself. Tehran has been seeking to impose some red liens on IDF action in Lebanon, and the White House has so far appeared to respond with compromising language. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 09:05

Israel's military adventures have backfired - and the public is losing patience Submitted by Abed Abou Shhadeh on Mon, 06/08/2026 - 20:51 The Gaza war destroyed Tel Aviv's global standing, while the assaults on Lebanon and Iran have achieved nothing but a sharp rise in the cost of living  Israeli protesters gather to call for a political process to end the fighting and restore security for residents of northern Israel and soldiers, in Tel Aviv on 4 June 2026 (Jack Guez/AFP) On The sequence and speed of the latest clash between Israel and Iran cannot be understood outside of the broader context of Israel’s war on Lebanon. On Sunday, Iran launched missiles towards Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, which Tel Aviv described as a response to recent Hezbollah fire in northern Israel. After the Iranian missile launch, Israel carried out retaliatory strikes against several cities in Iran. Due to the rapid succession of events, some might have forgotten that even before the joint Israeli-US aggression against Iran began this past February, the Lebanese government sought ceasefire talks with Israel, which refused them.  At the time, Israel believed it had the upper hand, and it wanted to continue operating in Lebanon. Since signing a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah in November 2024, Israel has violated it more than 10,000 times, while boasting that the agreement only bound Hezbollah and left Tel Aviv free to maneuver. Hezbollah’s entry into the Iran war surprised Israelis on three fronts: firstly, it debunked the Israeli assumption that Hezbollah had lost its fighting capacity and morale; secondly, it showed that Hezbollah could exact high costs from the Israeli military; and thirdly, it revealed Iran’s firm commitment to Hezbollah and Lebanon as a baseline condition for a US-Iran ceasefire. One can thus deduce that the current negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese state actually stem from a point of Israeli weakness. The Israeli government is attempting to build a coalition with its Lebanese counterpart in a joint effort to weaken Hezbollah. There is historical precedent for this. During the Israeli invasion of Lebanon between 1982 and 2000, the Israeli army delegated much of the work of maintaining its occupation to the South Lebanon Army. The subsequent Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon conveyed a message to its collaborators: Israel acts only in its own self-interest, and is in no rush to fight for others. Army overextended  Today, the manpower situation in the Israeli military has only worsened. Since the beginning of the genocidal war in Gaza, Israel has lost hundreds of combat troops. The Israeli madness of managing wars in an unrestrained manner, without a diplomatic horizon or an exit strategy, has left reserve soldiers overburdened.  There are serious concern within the military over a shortage of soldiers needed for operations in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Syria and Lebanon. In short, the army is overextended. More than two dozen Israeli soldiers have been killed since the start of the Iran war and the entrance of Hezbollah into the campaign. Among the group’s most effective weapons are first-person view drones, which have become a tactical challenge for Israeli troops. None of Israel's recent actions indicate any clear military objective, nor any strategy to end the war Making matters tougher for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his coalition recently decided to dissolve the Knesset, paving the way for fresh elections. The looming vote comes after nearly three years of fighting under the slogan of “absolute victory”, backed by a broad Israeli political consensus and public support for using as much force as possible. The result has been the opposite. Israel’s global standing is worse than ever due to its conduct, especially in Gaza. Social media is filled with videos of Israelis being kicked out of restaurants and entertainment venues. Hamas still exists in Gaza and is reportedly working to rebuild its military strength.  Hezbollah has also been regrouping, and worse still, the Iran war that Netanyahu convinced Washington to join was an utter failure. The Iranian regime survived, and is now setting conditions for a ceasefire deal, including discussions on the future of the Strait of Hormuz and the preservation of its nuclear capabilities.  This past weekend, Tehran further showed that it will not hesitate to strike Israel first in retaliation for attacks on Lebanon. What began as an Israeli attempt to create a new equation against Hezbollah has ultimately led to a situation where Iran holds the upper hand of deterrence. Complex dilemma The developments this weekend were unprecedented. For the first time in the Israel-Iran-US conflict, Iran initiated an attack and did not provide advance notice. An hour before the missiles were fired, a senior security official told Ynet that Israel did not expect Iran to actually strike. [Can you supply a link to this interview?] Even worse for Netanyahu was the reaction of US President Donald Trump, who urged Israel not to hit back, and instead to give negotiations a chance. Regardless, Israel went on to carry out limited strikes against Iran. But none of Israel’s recent actions indicate any clear military objective, nor any strategy to end the war. The same situation has unfolded since the beginning of the genocide in Gaza, while Israel’s global reputation has continued to plummet.  How Hezbollah rebuilt itself for a war of attrition with Israel Read More » From Tel Aviv’s backing of anti-Hamas militias in Gaza, to its gambling on the hope that millions of Iranians would rise up to overthrow their regime, to its attempts to incite another civil war in Lebanon, all of its strategies have failed miserably. Many in the Israeli public who supported the wars now find themselves in a complex dilemma. Not only has “absolute victory” failed to arrive, but Israel’s military challenges have only worsened, as the ongoing conflict has caused economic chaos and revealed significant holes in the country’s security strategy. Many in Israel understand that they are on shaky ground in the region and the world, but they traditionally found comfort in military successes. Now, they are starting to realise that there are limits to this power. The army is overwhelmed, the US is a fickle ally, and the cost of living in Israel is growing alongside the country’s ballooning defence budget. It may well take more time before we see a shift in the Israeli political consciousness, and a recognition that not everything can be solved by force. But for now, as Netanyahu’s political rivals rev their engines for the upcoming elections, both the coalition government and the opposition still speak in the same militant tone - devoid of a political horizon. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye. War on Iran Opinion Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:29 Update Date Override 0

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers,  Direct attacks between Iran and Israel have paused following a weekend exchange of strikes, easing fears of an immediate regional escalation. However, tensions remain high as Israel continues military operations in Lebanon, Tehran warns it could resume attacks if hostilities persist and diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran continue through regional mediation. Here are the latest updates:  Iran and Israel halted direct military attacks after several days of exchanges, though both sides warned the pause could be temporary. President Donald Trump reportedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against further escalation, saying Israel could find itself isolated if fighting expands. Iran's military ordered a halt to attacks on Israel but warned that any renewed aggression, particularly in Lebanon, would trigger a stronger response. Israeli forces continued air strikes across southern Lebanon, with at least a dozen people reported killed, including a woman and a child. Lebanon's death toll from Israeli attacks since March rose to 3,637, according to Lebanese health authorities. Tehran said negotiations with the United States are progressing through Pakistani mediation, while Vice President JD Vance said Washington remains in a strong negotiating position. Trump said Israel and Iran have “called it quits” for now and predicted the United States would declare “complete victory” over Iran within two weeks. The US military said it disabled another tanker bound for an Iranian port, bringing the total number of vessels targeted under the blockade to seven. Hezbollah claimed 16 attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon as clashes continued despite international calls for de-escalation. Israel said strikes on Iran focused heavily on air-defence infrastructure, while Iranian officials maintained that the country would not yield to pressure. Oil prices edged higher despite the pause in direct hostilities, reflecting continued concerns over regional stability and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

No wonder Donald Trump swore at his supposed friend and ally Benjamin Netanyahu last week. Within days of that June 1 phone call, Israel and Iran were back on track for the kind of military escalation that can no longer be explained away as a ceasefire breach, presenting a potentially fatal threat to the US president’s attempts to end the war.The cause of their dispute is, on the surface, simple. Israel says the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington did not cover Lebanon, and that its troops would therefore go on fighting Hezbollah so long as the Shiite group posed a security threat to Israeli’s northern border communities. Iran says the deal did cover Lebanon, which is just another front in the same war — and of course it is.It’s precisely because it sees Hezbollah as a tool of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that Israel wanted the war in the first place. Israelis correctly blamed the IRGC for having orchestrated an entire proxy network of militias — from the Houthis in Yemen, to Hamas in Gaza, to Hezbollah in Lebanon — against the world’s only Jewish state. That Iranian strategy contributed directly to the atrocities of Oct. 7, 2023.Also Read: US Army Apache helicopter crashes near Strait of Hormuz, says reportOnly such an Iran-controlled or -inspired network can explain why Hezbollah opened a second front against the Israelis on Oct. 8 of that year, long before it could be described as a response to Israeli military excesses against Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Likewise that Hezbollah would join in the fight again when the US and Israel attacked Iran, in February. And it’s why the Houthis chose this weekend to lob a missile at Israel and announce they were closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to Israeli shipping.These last Houthi gestures were largely symbolic. Yet the collective message Tehran seeks to deliver is clear; it is that reports of the death of its so-called Axis of Resistance have been greatly exaggerated. The latest bout of escalation has notably been directed at Israel alone, serving to drive a wedge between it and the US, as it exposed the point at which their interests divide.Tehran on Monday appeared to want to draw a line under spiraling tit-for-tat air and missile strikes, saying it would refrain from further attacks — so long as Israel doesn’t bomb Hezbollah’s strongholds in Beirut. Netanyahu now faces a painful dilemma: Should he obey Trump by limiting his campaign against Hezbollah in the face of Iranian threats, thus granting them a level of impunity and deterrent power? Or should he ignore Trump and unleash the Israel Defense Forces on the Lebanese capital?Also Read: US carriers spent $6. 5B on fuel in April; global profit forecast is cut nearly in halfTehran’s new leaders understand this. No doubt they see it as a win-win for themselves. They know, too, that Hezbollah has recovered some of the military utility it had lost before the war after acquiring remote-controlled first-person view drones that the IDF seem ill-prepared to counter.This would present a genuine predicament to any Israeli government, because popular support for “finishing the job” in Lebanon is high. Netanyahu faces anger from across the political spectrum over his apparent submission of Israeli security interests to American ones.But this isn’t any Israeli government. Not every Israeli leader would have overseen a decades-long security policy that prioritized the suppression of the Palestinian Authority over Hamas, allowing the terrorist group to succeed beyond its wildest dreams on Oct. 7. Nor would every Israeli leader have refused to draw up a political strategy to accompany the use of force that followed in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon — despite being coerced by Trump into recent talks with its central government.As the former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak put it in an article for the liberal Haaretz newspaper on Monday, the story being sold to Israelis — that the IDF could eradicate Hezbollah once and for all if only its hands weren’t tied — is “a dangerous illusion.” The history of previous, painful failed incursions into Lebanon says as much.Nor would every Israeli leader have misled Trump into believing (against the advice of the US military and intelligence community) that assassinating Iran’s supreme leader would swiftly precipitate a collapse of the Islamic Republic as a whole. Nor might they have allowed their country to become quite as diplomatically isolated as it has.It is these strategic failures, amid undoubted military success, that have left Israel with few good options. Netanyahu can hope for a rapid collapse of the regime in Tehran to resolve his dilemma, but that’s unlikely. Alternatively, he can try to persuade the US to join in a long-term mow-the-lawn policy to keep Iran weak, amounting to a forever war. This, too, seems unlikely — or at least not in the interests of the US, its Gulf allies or the global economy.Failing one of these minor miracles, the risk of Israel being forced to accept a peace deal that leaves an enraged and emboldened Islamic Republic in place is real. No doubt Netanyahu, like Trump, believed in February that a short, victorious Iranian war might salvage his dimming political prospects, ahead of the Israeli elections due by October. That was a bad bet.