Multiple reports say the Labour government’s VAT policy is associated with a decline in private school enrolment. One outlet reports that the number of pupils at private schools has fallen by roughly 30,000, with about 20,000 fewer pupils recorded in the most recent year. The same coverage contrasts this outcome with earlier figures provided by Labour, which had projected the sector would shrink by about 37,000 pupils in the long run as a result of the policy. According to the report, the observed decline may indicate that the earlier estimate understates the scale of the reduction. The sources provided do not include further detail on the methodology used to measure the change, the time period covered, or whether other factors besides VAT are driving enrolment trends. Overall, the articles focus on enrolment figures and the comparison between current reported falls and the government’s earlier longer-term projection.