Elon Musk draws attention to India’s declining fertility rate after new government-linked estimates show the country’s birth rate falling below the replacement level. Multiple outlets cite figures from India’s 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report indicating India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is now about 1.9 children per woman, down from roughly 2.1 previously. The replacement benchmark widely used by demographers is 2.1, so a TFR below this level suggests smaller family sizes and slower population replacement over time.
Outlets also reference state and city variation. Delhi is reported to have the lowest fertility rate at around 1.2 children per woman, lower than the national average. One report notes that the decline is highlighted in a viral social media post, which frames the change as a drop from around 2.3 to 1.9 over about a decade. While some coverage mentions the trend being more visible among educated groups, the underlying claim across sources is that India’s fertility rate has fallen below 2.1.
