European climate monitoring service Copernicus says forecasts are moving toward a potential very strong El Niño later this year, with confidence rising across global models. Copernicus Climate Change Service director Carlo Buontempo tells AFP that predictions have shifted upward between May 1 and June 1. The service reports that odds strongly favour a moderate to strong event, and possibly an event that could be record-breaking. Copernicus also says 75% of participating global forecasters predict sea-surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific could rise by 2.5°C or more above average by November.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern driven by warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which affects global winds, pressure and rainfall. The Copernicus update notes that only three El Niño events since the modern record began in 1877/78 have surpassed 2°C: 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16. The reports reflect growing model consensus but do not provide a final certainty of the event’s strength or timing.
