El Niño is now officially underway in the tropical Pacific, and multiple forecasters say it is expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months. NOAA in the United States and international agencies indicate a high likelihood that the event will rank among the largest ever recorded, with some estimates pointing toward record or near-record strength.

Updates also emphasize timing: several reports cite strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere summer into autumn, with the UN weather agency (WMO) warning that the July–September period is a key window. The WMO says current guidance from major climate models shows consistent warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and it classifies the event as moving toward “strong” conditions. Live Science and other outlets report that recent forecasts suggest it could be the strongest ever measured, citing European forecasting updates.

Outlets differ mainly in emphasis and details rather than the overall direction of the forecasts. Some focus on “super El Niño” language and potential record global heat, while others stress preparedness for extreme weather—such as heat, drought risk, and heavy rainfall—across different regions. Despite the event’s severity, WMO messaging included that there is no evidence climate change increases El Niño frequency or intensity, though it can amplify the impacts.