The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global oil markets are likely to shift into a substantial supply surplus in 2027 after recovering from the disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA points to a potential easing of tensions following an interim U.S.-Iran agreement announced by the United States, under which Iran would reopen the strait and the U.S. would lift its naval blockade. The IEA estimates the broader Iran-linked conflict has blocked more than 14 million barrels per day (bpd) of Middle East oil output, describing it as the largest oil supply disruption in history.
The IEA projects that supply would surge by about 8 million bpd in 2027 while demand increases by around 2 million bpd. It says this imbalance would likely produce a “significant” surplus, offering relief to the market and potentially enabling replenishment of depleted inventories or building of new strategic reserves as countries reassess energy policies. The report also notes that oil flows through the strait are already rising, with increases reported by early June.
