A new analysis estimates that more than 2,700 people in England and Wales die from heat-related causes during exceptional heatwaves in May and June 2026. The research, led by institutions including the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Imperial College London and the Met Office, uses rapid excess-deaths modelling to link fatalities to the period of extreme temperatures.
One report estimates the June heatwave’s peak spanned three days and caused up to about 440 premature deaths per day in England and Wales. Estimates across the combined May and June events place total excess deaths at roughly 2,700, with figures also described as around 550 deaths in May and about 2,200 in June, depending on temperature patterns and local exposure.
Some coverage adds context by reporting record-setting maxima in England during the two months, with May reaching about 35.1°C and June about 37.7°C in the respective analyses cited. Additional commentary in at least one source states climate change increases the likelihood or severity of such heat, with attribution estimates for a share of heat-related deaths. Across outlets, the findings are presented as estimates rather than confirmed counts of every individual death as heat exposure.
