The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for South Korea’s government debt-to-GDP ratio through 2031, citing improved revenue prospects linked to stronger economic performance, according to South Korea’s budget ministry. In the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, the IMF projects the ratio will be 46.1% this year, then remain within the mid-40% to low-50% range through 2031.
The IMF also forecasts the debt-to-GDP ratio will be 51.3% in 2031, both figures representing sizable downward revisions from the IMF’s April estimates—8.3 percentage points lower for this year and 11.8 percentage points lower for 2031. South Korean authorities say the updated assessment reflects efforts to maintain a “virtuous cycle” in which expansionary fiscal policy supports growth, improving tax receipts.
The reporting focuses on the size and direction of the revisions and the rationale. Both outlets attribute the change primarily to better-than-previously expected revenue conditions rather than to a change in the broader forecast horizon or methodology.
